The translation of the text «Калифорния готовится к следующему крупному землетрясению» into English is: «California is preparing for the next major earthquake»
24 june 2026 в 21:13
Residents of California have been hearing about the «Big One» for decades. This term refers to a potentially catastrophic earthquake that could occur along one of the state’s major fault systems, particularly the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults. While scientists agree that another major earthquake will happen in the future, they emphasize that they cannot predict the exact date, time, or location of its occurrence.
Recent studies and seismic monitoring have raised concerns about the earthquake risk in California, especially considering the increasing stress along several active faults. Here’s what experts know about the next potential «Big One» in the state.
The definition of a «Big One» depends on the context. For Southern California, experts point to the 1994 Northridge earthquake, which had a magnitude of 6.7, claimed the lives of 57 people, and caused approximately $ 20 billion in damages. Although it was devastating, Northridge was smaller than the catastrophic scenarios often associated with a «Big One».
Some consider the last true «Big One» to be the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. This earthquake had a magnitude of 7.9 and devastated much of the San Andreas fault. It destroyed parts of San Francisco and claimed thousands of lives.
Another recorded «Big One» occurred in 1857 and also had a magnitude of 7.9. It destroyed the southern section of the San Andreas fault between Parafield and Wrightwood in California.
Scientists remain concerned about the southern part of the San Andreas fault.
As for the next «Big One», - the short answer is that no one knows when it will happen, but it is inevitable.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), earthquakes cannot currently be predicted with sufficient accuracy to determine the exact date, time, or location of the next major earthquake.
However, researchers have developed models that estimate the likelihood of major earthquakes in California. Previous USGS forecasts have identified significant probabilities of earthquakes with magnitudes of 6.7 and above occurring in the next few years or decades.
Nevertheless, according to a recent 2026 study, some sections of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults in Southern California are currently experiencing some of the highest levels of stress. The main area of concern is the Cajon Pass between the San Gabriel and San Bernardino mountains.
Unfortunately, as mentioned earlier, scientists can assess the risk of potential earthquakes but cannot predict the exact timing of their occurrence. Therefore, the next «Big One» could happen as soon as tomorrow.
In theory, there is no upper limit on the magnitude scale for measuring earthquakes. The most powerful earthquake in history occurred in 1960 in Valdivia, Chile, and had a magnitude of 9.5.
In comparison, the earthquake commonly referred to as California’s «Big One» is likely to have a magnitude ranging from 7.8 to 8.3, depending on which fault ruptures and how severely.
Scientists expect widespread shaking and infrastructure damage when a major earthquake occurs on the San Andreas fault.
One of the most frequently cited scenarios by the USGS, known as the ShakeOut scenario, models a hypothetical earthquake with a magnitude of 7.8 on the southern San Andreas fault. It predicts strong shaking across Southern California, from Los Angeles County to San Bernardino, estimating around 1,800 deaths and $ 200 billion in damages.
Experts urge residents to prepare emergency kits and action plans in case the next major earthquake occurs
Recent studies and seismic monitoring have raised concerns about the earthquake risk in California, especially considering the increasing stress along several active faults. Here’s what experts know about the next potential «Big One» in the state.
The definition of a «Big One» depends on the context. For Southern California, experts point to the 1994 Northridge earthquake, which had a magnitude of 6.7, claimed the lives of 57 people, and caused approximately $ 20 billion in damages. Although it was devastating, Northridge was smaller than the catastrophic scenarios often associated with a «Big One».
Some consider the last true «Big One» to be the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. This earthquake had a magnitude of 7.9 and devastated much of the San Andreas fault. It destroyed parts of San Francisco and claimed thousands of lives.
Another recorded «Big One» occurred in 1857 and also had a magnitude of 7.9. It destroyed the southern section of the San Andreas fault between Parafield and Wrightwood in California.
Scientists remain concerned about the southern part of the San Andreas fault.
As for the next «Big One», - the short answer is that no one knows when it will happen, but it is inevitable.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), earthquakes cannot currently be predicted with sufficient accuracy to determine the exact date, time, or location of the next major earthquake.
However, researchers have developed models that estimate the likelihood of major earthquakes in California. Previous USGS forecasts have identified significant probabilities of earthquakes with magnitudes of 6.7 and above occurring in the next few years or decades.
Nevertheless, according to a recent 2026 study, some sections of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults in Southern California are currently experiencing some of the highest levels of stress. The main area of concern is the Cajon Pass between the San Gabriel and San Bernardino mountains.
Unfortunately, as mentioned earlier, scientists can assess the risk of potential earthquakes but cannot predict the exact timing of their occurrence. Therefore, the next «Big One» could happen as soon as tomorrow.
In theory, there is no upper limit on the magnitude scale for measuring earthquakes. The most powerful earthquake in history occurred in 1960 in Valdivia, Chile, and had a magnitude of 9.5.
In comparison, the earthquake commonly referred to as California’s «Big One» is likely to have a magnitude ranging from 7.8 to 8.3, depending on which fault ruptures and how severely.
Scientists expect widespread shaking and infrastructure damage when a major earthquake occurs on the San Andreas fault.
One of the most frequently cited scenarios by the USGS, known as the ShakeOut scenario, models a hypothetical earthquake with a magnitude of 7.8 on the southern San Andreas fault. It predicts strong shaking across Southern California, from Los Angeles County to San Bernardino, estimating around 1,800 deaths and $ 200 billion in damages.
Experts urge residents to prepare emergency kits and action plans in case the next major earthquake occurs
© Kolganov Andrey
