Election forecast 2024: Kamala Harris or Donald Trump? Nate Silver makes a prediction
5 november 2024 в 20:13
If you haven’t recently checked social media or watched television, almost everyone in America knows that the 2024 presidential election is very close. Instagram and TikTok commentators are divided between supporting Vice President and Democratic Party candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Party candidate Donald Trump. So, since we may have many more days until the confirmed president-elect, who is forecasted to win the election?
Hollywood Life magazine has gathered current forecasts and polls below.
We conducted 80,000 simulations today.
Harris won in 40,012. https://t.co/vsGVG189Sa
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2024
Nate Silver, founder of the political analytics site FiveThirtyEight, accurately predicted the presidential elections of 2012 and 2020. Although his forecasts fluctuated this year, he updated voters on Tuesday, November 5, with his electoral college model based on 80,000 simulations, according to which Harris was predicted to win by a small margin.
However, Silver noted at the beginning of his statement: «When I say that the odds for this year’s presidential election are roughly 50/50, I am not exaggerating. … The race is literally closer to flipping a coin: empirically, the eagle wins 50.5 percent of the time, more than 50.015 percent Harris».
Earlier, Silver predicted that Trump would win.
Earlier during the election campaign, Professor Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted nine out of ten elections, predicted that Harris would take the lead. The professor is known as the «Nostradamus» of elections.
Lichtman developed a system known as the «13 keys» (also known as the «Keys to the White House») to determine the outcome of each presidential election.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris is forecasted to win «50 times out of 100» in its election simulations, while Trump is forecasted to win «49 times out of 100». The site noted that it used 1,000 simulations to determine the predicted winner, with 503 in favor of Harris, 495 in favor of Trump, and two situations where there was no winner.
Polls have been neck and neck for weeks. Polls for both Harris and Trump varied slightly. Marist College predicted that Harris would be ahead with a lead of 51 percent to Trump’s 47 percent
Hollywood Life magazine has gathered current forecasts and polls below.
We conducted 80,000 simulations today.
Harris won in 40,012. https://t.co/vsGVG189Sa
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2024
Nate Silver, founder of the political analytics site FiveThirtyEight, accurately predicted the presidential elections of 2012 and 2020. Although his forecasts fluctuated this year, he updated voters on Tuesday, November 5, with his electoral college model based on 80,000 simulations, according to which Harris was predicted to win by a small margin.
However, Silver noted at the beginning of his statement: «When I say that the odds for this year’s presidential election are roughly 50/50, I am not exaggerating. … The race is literally closer to flipping a coin: empirically, the eagle wins 50.5 percent of the time, more than 50.015 percent Harris».
Earlier, Silver predicted that Trump would win.
Earlier during the election campaign, Professor Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted nine out of ten elections, predicted that Harris would take the lead. The professor is known as the «Nostradamus» of elections.
Lichtman developed a system known as the «13 keys» (also known as the «Keys to the White House») to determine the outcome of each presidential election.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris is forecasted to win «50 times out of 100» in its election simulations, while Trump is forecasted to win «49 times out of 100». The site noted that it used 1,000 simulations to determine the predicted winner, with 503 in favor of Harris, 495 in favor of Trump, and two situations where there was no winner.
Polls have been neck and neck for weeks. Polls for both Harris and Trump varied slightly. Marist College predicted that Harris would be ahead with a lead of 51 percent to Trump’s 47 percent
© Smirnova Olga
